after this post you will be sizing bets in your head
Real-life kelly
How I Teach Middle Schoolers To Build Stock Portfolios
Basics portfolio construction
appreciating diversification
the basics of diversification
Example of “measurement not prediction” in the wild
Contradictions
The Coastline Paradox in Financial Markets
there's no single volatility, just as there's no single measure of coastline distance
the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex
the "system 2" reaction to a proposition
deworsification?
proving diversification is a free lunch
why poker is used to train traders
speedrunning feedback
how overconfidence and confirmation bias create reinforcing loops
The most prominent decision biases in investing
timing the market
how a trader can stop the urge to time the market
Vol drag is misunderstood...until now
Vol drag does NOT change the mean or expected return. It affects the return you are most likely to experience.
Why meme stock put spreads look expensive
How vol drag influences vertical spreads
the 80/20 hack for "risk-adjusting" returns
Forecasting your actual compounded return
The "most important" gambling topic and a riddle
Non-self-weighting strategy
the investment industry is a placebo
Uselessly long feedback loops mean investing is an act of faith
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