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May 4, 2025·Options and Volatility

shorter VRP lookbacks

VRP failure mode: a stale denominator

Apr 27, 2025·How Markets Work

etf fair value

etf NAV and BTC

Apr 20, 2025·How Markets Work

If they ban short-selling derivatives become the underlying

A reminder in the spirit of being attuned to seemingly far-fetched risks: If short selling were restricted in any way, the value of puts relative to calls on the same strike increases in a put-call parity framework. Another way to say this is being long stock is more valuable since only long sellers can sell. If puts increase relative to calls on the same strike, as they do when borrow costs increase, that is like a synthetic future on the stock trading at a discount to the stock price. Simil

Apr 13, 2025·Options and Volatility

the inverted term structure trap

vol term structure backwardation

Apr 10, 2025·Options and Volatility

vol speed round

recent action

Apr 8, 2025·Risk and Edge

moontower raw: another day of trading

more live trading

Apr 7, 2025·How Markets Work

moontower raw: things i did today and why

discussing live trades

Apr 6, 2025·How Markets Work

a quick thought before the week

liberation day thoughts

Mar 27, 2025

straddle-sniped

stepping thru a COIN vol trade

Mar 26, 2025·Risk and Edge

stop with the stop-loss debate

on stop-losses

Mar 23, 2025·Options Theory

one-touch

probabilities from deltas

Mar 20, 2025·Options and Volatility

BTC autopsy

IBIT post-mortem

Mar 20, 2025·Options Theory

weekend theta

understanding volatility time by zooming in on a weekend

Mar 19, 2025·Options Theory

one-touch

probability vs delta

Mar 16, 2025·Options and Volatility

surfing volatility

pure vol trading

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