shorter VRP lookbacks
VRP failure mode: a stale denominator
Our thinking on options, trading, investing.
VRP failure mode: a stale denominator
etf NAV and BTC
A reminder in the spirit of being attuned to seemingly far-fetched risks: If short selling were restricted in any way, the value of puts relative to calls on the same strike increases in a put-call parity framework. Another way to say this is being long stock is more valuable since only long sellers can sell. If puts increase relative to calls on the same strike, as they do when borrow costs increase, that is like a synthetic future on the stock trading at a discount to the stock price. Simil
vol term structure backwardation
recent action
more live trading
discussing live trades
liberation day thoughts
stepping thru a COIN vol trade
on stop-losses
probabilities from deltas
IBIT post-mortem
understanding volatility time by zooming in on a weekend
probability vs delta
pure vol trading
Options, volatility, and risk — written by traders, delivered when we publish.