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Jun 18, 2025·9 min read

The variable that balances the buy/rent equation

You’ve solved one equation with one unknown a million times. For example: $20 - 2 * $8.99 = X where: X = how much change you are owed after handing over an Andrew Jackson for 2 hot dogs at Wrigley Field. In finance, this uneventful operation is dressed up with the word “implied”. Fix all the observable inputs to an option price and back out an “implied volatility”. We imply lots of values. The probability of TSLA expiring below $250 by December 2025, “breakeven inflation”, or as my fundamen

Jun 15, 2025·3 min read

two vol trader interview questions

practice with volatility time

Jun 12, 2025·9 min read·How Markets Work

how I sold cotton at an all-time high

The cotton market as a unique example of when derivatives become the underlying

Jun 1, 2025·1 min read·Options and Volatility

Our big TSLA covered call study

Selling covered calls in TSLA for the past 6 years

Jun 1, 2025·1 min read·Options Theory

Options as LEGOs

How to explain options and put-call parity to absolute beginners

May 26, 2025·1 min read·Options and Volatility

shortcuts to get implied vol from a straddle

more option math tricks

May 22, 2025·10 min read·Options and Volatility

what the vol spread hides

how charts oversimplify

May 13, 2025·7 min read·Risk and Edge

the 2 vectors of volatility scaling

the foundation of portfolio construction

May 4, 2025·1 min read·Risk and Edge

another example of vol goggles

Delta bid or vol bid?

May 4, 2025·2 min read·Options and Volatility

shorter VRP lookbacks

VRP failure mode: a stale denominator

Apr 27, 2025·1 min read·How Markets Work

etf fair value

etf NAV and BTC

Apr 20, 2025·1 min read·How Markets Work

If they ban short-selling derivatives become the underlying

A reminder in the spirit of being attuned to seemingly far-fetched risks: If short selling were restricted in any way, the value of puts relative to calls on the same strike increases in a put-call parity framework. Another way to say this is being long stock is more valuable since only long sellers can sell. If puts increase relative to calls on the same strike, as they do when borrow costs increase, that is like a synthetic future on the stock trading at a discount to the stock price. Simil

Apr 13, 2025·2 min read·Options and Volatility

the inverted term structure trap

vol term structure backwardation

Apr 10, 2025·9 min read·Options and Volatility

vol speed round

recent action

Apr 8, 2025·5 min read·Risk and Edge

moontower raw: another day of trading

more live trading

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