the 80/20 hack for "risk-adjusting" returns
Forecasting your actual compounded return
Education
Moontower Blog
Our thinking on options, trading, investing.
using elementary school geometry to explain gamma
gamma p/l is the same as distance covered via acceleration
the dirties are down the cleans are up
On June 2nd I tweeted: June expiry in USO vol change on the 3% rally... OPEC agreed over the weekend to hike production...but you saw the Ukraine-Russia developments. Competing bullish/bearish effects Vol is lower today if you look at the June surface. But it's probably up on the day on @moreproteinbars dashboard. Why? (a junior option trader interview question @bennpeifert might ask would be compute the actual vol change) An eager beaver wanted the answer key: I wouldn’t share Tina’s answ
The "most important" gambling topic and a riddle
Non-self-weighting strategy
the investment industry is a placebo
Uselessly long feedback loops mean investing is an act of faith
Netting risk, “The Hopeless”, John Arnold and more
a wide smattering of finance nerdom
The variable that balances the buy/rent equation
You’ve solved one equation with one unknown a million times. For example: $20 - 2 * $8.99 = X where: X = how much change you are owed after handing over an Andrew Jackson for 2 hot dogs at Wrigley Field. In finance, this uneventful operation is dressed up with the word “implied”. Fix all the observable inputs to an option price and back out an “implied volatility”. We imply lots of values. The probability of TSLA expiring below $250 by December 2025, “breakeven inflation”, or as my fundamen
two vol trader interview questions
practice with volatility time
how I sold cotton at an all-time high
The cotton market as a unique example of when derivatives become the underlying
Our big TSLA covered call study
Selling covered calls in TSLA for the past 6 years
Options as LEGOs
How to explain options and put-call parity to absolute beginners
shortcuts to get implied vol from a straddle
more option math tricks
what the vol spread hides
how charts oversimplify
the 2 vectors of volatility scaling
the foundation of portfolio construction
another example of vol goggles
Delta bid or vol bid?
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