how overconfidence and confirmation bias create reinforcing loops

Below is an excerpt from the presentation I did at McCombs Business School at UT Austin.

It’s more hands-on to watch it after you take this quiz:

Confidence Test

(Respondents tend to score about 4 out of 10 on it.)

There’s a fun experiment in the video as well.

You’ll see just overconfidence and confirmation bias feed off each other in an escalating, reinforcing loop — and the key to stopping it.