Back on Oct 17th, I sold Z24 WTI (oil) 67 strike puts unhedged.
I explained my reasoning in this thread back when I did the trade. They were the equivalent to the USO Nov 15th 69 puts (I said Nov 22nd expiry but that was in error.)
I covered the WTI puts on Thursday morning. I published this thread when I covered them. Here’s a mildly edited version:
We’ll use the USO puts to write the post-mortem of a roughly 2 week trade. I hope its super educational.
Let’s start with the vibes.
Markets feel a bit, I don’t know, ahead of themselves. Everything but oil popping (til today). Rates & USD higher.
I’m less bullish on oil (and broadly bearish).
I cut oil length and bot t-bills this am.
Let’s get to the specifics of the “cutting length” trade because there’s many ways to do that. But my directional bias coincided with wanting to buy back my short vol (the moontower mantra — don’t touch the options without a vol lens).
Why?
Vol has sufficiently relaxed in oil since i sold the puts. The put skew was at normal levels when i first sold the 30d delta puts but the vol was high. Since spot/vol corr was positive that made them seem extra high!
- Today there almost no skew in those (now) .29d puts
- The implied vol is below realized (granted realized is on the high end of the range)
- AND the election is getting negligible vol premium in oil
These pics show the negative VRP and negligible event premium assuming 35% fair base vol (which comes from eyeballing the USO vol term structure).
While that explains the how and why of covering the position, let’s understand the p/l attribution of the position while I held it. We do this with the same type of charts I’ve been showing post-mortems with.
I’ll narrate where your eyes should go so it’s easier to learn.
If the puts were hedged the trade was steadily profitable except for 2 days out of 11 when the market popped.
See the yellow boxes on the red line:
Every day we can see the contribution to the hedged p/l from 2 components:
- realized vol p/l (tug of war between gamma & theta)
- vega p/l (change in IV)
The yellow boxes are examples of the daily decomposition.
Look what happened on Friday 10/25’s big down move…the hedged p/l was still positive. Yes, you got hammered on the realized p/l but vol got slammed! The put skew was in fact unjustified. The down move was what I call stabilizing to the market
Down moves aren’t normally stabilizing but my idea was that the Middle East conflict was driving the high vol so in this context a down move would be stabilizing so the total vol was unjustified if oil is lower.
(Ofc I was naked short the puts so that Friday was still a tough p/l day because i experienced a rough delta p/l but overall it was buffered by the puts underperforming)
Over the life of the trade, on a delta hedged basis you would earn $.45 being short the option from $1.76 On an unhedged basis it was $.78 (I actually made more than that because I actually sold the options closer to $2 bc the stock was about the same place it is right now, $71.85)
More importantly let’s look at the cumulative p/l attribution:
Almost all of it came from vega. The option was well-priced from a realized vol point of view!
This all ties in to my general gestalt of “short where she lands, long where she ain’t” bit. If vol is going to relax when it “gets there” then you don’t wanna use the option to bet it’s gonna get there. And if everyone thinks it’s “not going there” then when it does it will destabilize and you’ll wish you owned that option.
As a junior trader I remember selling calls bc “it’ll never get there”. I promise you there are many people who think like that. They don’t understand vol trading.
[An aside: That statement sounds more incendiary than I’d like. It troubles me I can’t fully articulate it. It’s a bit of an ink blot test. It’s understandable if you find that unsatisfying but the raw reality is indifferent to both of our dissatisfaction. In truth, there was a point of separation somewhere along the evolution of trading careers where as things got more competitive from the floor days to today, the traders who were copycatting disappeared into other parts of the business. When trading morphed from time/place advantage edge to positional edge it exposed the copycats lack of deep options understanding. Before Hollywood, there was a “me too” era on option pits across the land, where you only had to be savvy enough to identify who was smart and just make sure you yelled “buy’em” at the same time.
There are a lot of people who sound like they get vol trading. In fact I can’t fully imagine how hard it is for someone who’s not super experienced to tell the difference. The problem with codifying a “trading Turing test” is the same one interviewers have with candidates — as professional-grade info gets disseminated it’s hard to know if someone has earned it or parroted it.]
One of the savviest oil options traders I ever knew had a good formulation:
He’d buy those nominally cheap (but vol expensive) weeny puts when he was bullish. Because if the market dropped he just wanted to own what I call “the trap door” to protect what he really wanted to do…get balls long
In my own trading, i wanted to own the trap door. Whatever everyone thinks is impossible is the option i want. Stick’em in my back pocket and if it ever comes into play I’m the only one with 2 hands on the wheel
I admit this instinct was much stronger when i was trading a big book and i don’t have it as much now (that’s another discussion altogether).
Anyway, I hope this was overall educational. There’s an art to this game called options. If anything i maybe it gets the ole mind bicycle spinnin’ in such a way that even if you don’t trade options, it can mentally upgrade your whole investment decision OS.