How Options Confuse Directional Traders
How you can be right on direction and still wrong
Education
Moontower Blog
Our thinking on options, trading, investing.
Prices Are More Than Expectations
The difficulty of extracting what markets imply
Measurement Not Prediction
Seeing the present clearly
The ‘Volatility Is A Risk’ Strawman
Risk is more than a single measure
Snowflakes vs Lemmings
First principles or fast-follow?
How Much Extra Return Should You Demand For Illiquidity?
A market-based thought exercise for pricing the value of liquidity
Path: How Compounding Alters Return Distributions
See how the path of returns can alter the distribution of p/l independently of expectancy.
Making Property Taxes Apples to Apples
Different state tax regimes make home price comparison difficult.
Straddles, Volatility, and Win Rates
If you sell fairly priced straddles you win more often than you lose, but the expectancy is zero. Find out why.
Binary Straddle Example Based On The 2016 Election
When an outcome is binary with an implied probability, the straddle will tell you the expected move in either direction
DCF As A Lower Bound
DCF valuations underestimate the value of an asset will trade for.
You Don’t See The Whole Picture
Syngerstic bids look expensive to those without the same diversification advantages
Lessons From The Layup – Corner 3 Spread
Practice relative value thinking
You Can Mock Trade With A Deck Of Cards
Card games used in training
Mock Trading Options With Market Makers
How professional option traders trained
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