This post is an excerpt from the finance part of why home prices could fall with mortgage rates.
I extracted it because it is a tidy explainer of something you feel but might not be able to articulate.
The reason you feel that selling your home to buy another these days feels like you have somehow incinerated money, is because you are.
It’s just bond math — you are buying a loan that is trading at a massive discount back for par when you pay off your mortgage. We can compute just how much money you are incinerating.
Quite unfortunate because along with low-supply and bottlenecks this is financial force that also conspires to remove supply and liquidity.
Excerpt below…
Houses are worth very different amounts to existing homeowners vs buyers. And since many buyers are homeowners (I’m talking about people changing primary residence not second homes), the split valuation even exists within the same brain. You’re Hyde when you list and Jekyll when you bid.
Let’s walk through it.
Homeowners who secured low-interest-rate mortgages years ago effectively “shorted bonds”. As interest rates rose, the value of these loans plummeted, embedding equity into these “short bond” positions. This means that the mortgage itself has become an asset that is highly valuable to the current owner. It’s like “it’s equity in a mark-to-theo short”. But that equity is trapped. It’s specifically tied to that home. The new buyer doesn’t get it because they must finance at the higher current rates.
This mechanically alters fair value of the asset depending on who owns or doesn’t own it. The homeowner might not be able to articulate it but they have two assets: the physical home and the valuable low-interest-rate mortgage. If they were to sell the home, they would have to buy back the mortgage at its face value, rather than its current impaired value thus losing the accrued profit from the “short bond” position.
Let’s make it concrete with a numerical example.
You bought a $500k house 5 years ago with a $100k down payment. You borrowed $400k at 3%.
What do you owe today?
Step 1: Calculate the Monthly Payment on the Original Mortgage
The formula for the monthly payment of a fixed-rate mortgage:
Where:
- M = monthly payment
- P = principal loan amount = $400,000
- r = monthly interest rate = 3%/12 = 0.0025
- n= number of payments = 360
Monthly payment = $1,686.42
The mortgage still has 25 years (or 300 payments) until maturity.
The remaining balance after 5 years is $355,625 (from this calculator)
In our fake world that’s pretty similar to the real one, a lot has changed in 5 years. Interest rates have doubled to 6%.
What is the value of the outstanding mortgage?
Step 2: Calculate the Present Value of the Remaining Payments
We need to find the present value of these remaining payments, discounted at the current 6% market rate.
The formula for the present value of an annuity is:
Where:
- M = $1,686.42 (monthly payment)
- r = 6%/12 = 0.005 (new monthly interest rate)
- n = 300 (remaining payments)
PV=1,686.42×[1−(1+0.005)−3000.005]
PV = $261,744
The present value of the remaining ~$356,000 mortgage, when discounted at the current 6% market rate, is approximately $261,744.
This significant difference highlights the additional equity embedded in the homeowner’s “short bond” position due to the lower interest rate. The homeowner has an intuitive sense that they are losing when they sell the home because they will have to pay the bank $356k to close the loan when it’s only worth $262k. Eww.
The additional $94k of equity that the homeowner has at prevailing interest rates represents almost 20% of the value of the $500k home!
If mortgage rates fall, the conventional wisdom that marginal demand to buy should increase is a fair assumption. However, rates falling cuts directly into this shadow equity that owners feel compared to a high-rate environment. I suspect this will actually “loosen” a bunch of trapped supply as the bid/ask spread narrows as the homeowners embedded equity in their “bond short” shrinks.
[I’m using the word “shadow” but it’s quite real vs the alternative of buying the same house for $500k at the higher interest rate. It’s “shadow” because the only way to monetize it is to let time elapse until the mortgage eventually goes away. Your lower cost of living relative to someone who doesn’t have a low interest-rate mortgage on the same property is the only way to realize the equity.
Active solutions to this illiquidity trap is allow homeowners to somehow port their mortgage to a new property or allow them to buy back their mortgage at the current value instead of the remaining principal amount.
I already hinted at a passive solution. Let the clock run. As time progresses, homeowners continue to pay down their mortgages. With each payment, the principal balance of the mortgage decreases, and the equity in the home increases. Over time, the impact of the low-interest-rate mortgage diminishes as the remaining balance shrinks. This gradual reduction in the outstanding mortgage balance reduces the value of the “short bond” position, making it less of a factor in the homeowner’s decision to sell. Eventually, as the mortgage balance becomes smaller relative to the home’s value, the embedded equity becomes less significant, narrowing the bid-ask spread.]
If mortgage rates fall in concert with the economy and employment weakening (pretty standard backdrop to falling interest rates), then supply may loosen in combination with general demand shortfall. It feels like a downside risk…but by now I’m also resigned to believing home prices won’t fall. We don’t have enough of them. Lending standards are conservative. There’s nothing frothy about the supply/demand balance. At the same time, it’s illiquid and unaffordable. My selfish position is I’d like to see prices ease but I’d happily settle for a wider selection of homes, even if they are overpriced.